Climate impact on social systems: the risk assessment approach

A novel approach to the problem of estimating climate impact on social systems is suggested. This approach is based on a risk concept, where the notion of critical events is introduced and the probability of such events is estimated. The estimation considers both the inherent stochasticity of climatic processes and the artificial stochasticity of climate predictions due to scientific uncertainties. The method is worked out in some detail for the regional problem of crop production and the risks associated with global climate change, and illustrated by a case study (Kursk region of the FSU). In order to get local climatic characteristics (weather), a so-called statistical weather generator is used. One interesting finding is that the 3% risk level remains constant up to 1.0–1.1°C rise of mean seasonal temperature, if the variance does not change. On the other hand, the risk grows rapidly with increasing variance (even if the mean temperature rises very slowly). The risk approach is able to separate two problems: (i) assessment of global change impact, and (ii) decision making. The main task for the scientific community is to provide the politicians with different options; the choice of admissible (from the social point of view) critical events and the corresponding risk levels is the business of decision makers.     

linking various aspects of atmospheric change through a systems analysis of food

Although interdisciplinary collaboration to address a singleenvironmental problem is more common than in the past, all toooften the significant atmospheric problems of our day such asstratospheric ozone depletion, acidic deposition or climaticchange are addressed on a single issue basis. Systems analysis isa way of looking at a problem in a holistic, integrated fashionthrough including as many as practicable of the importantcomponents, and the linkages among them. Systems analysisoften begins with a conceptual model which, even if lackingquantification, is a useful means of changing ones thinking to amulti-issue approach. If possible, conceptual models areoperationalized by quantification (using the best availablescientific knowledge) of the stocks and flows of the relevantcomponents of the problem, and the processes that are involved.In this paper, a systems approach to food production is used tolink various atmospheric issues such as regional acidification andclimatic change. A spreadsheet model of food demand andproduction in various world regions examined the possible effectof atmospheric change on how much food we can grow, andwhether or not we may be able to meet the increased demand inthe year 2025. Using relatively modest changes in factors ofagricultural production, the spreadsheet model calculated globalshortfalls by the year 2025 of the order of 10 to 20% in someimportant agricultural crops, despite the improvements in cropproduction factors that are envisaged by the Food andAgricultural Organization from now until the year 2010, and thatwere extrapolated in this paper to 2025. The model alsocalculated that climatic change in combination with eithertropospheric ozone or increased UV-B radiation caused bydepletion of the stratospheric ozone layer may in general makethe situation worse than in the case of climatic change alone.Given the large uncertainties in the input data, the results in thispaper should not be viewed as predictions but rather as anexample of taking a relatively simple systems approach to foodproduction using a spreadsheet model, and calculating the effectsthat various aspects of atmospheric change might have upon it.Therefore, it is extremely important to know the effects uponcrop production factors of climatic change, tropospheric ozoneand increased UV-B radiation not only as individual issues, butalso of their combined effect since it is probable that in manyregions they will occur in combination.     

环境污染纠纷调处与环境行政处罚之区别浅析——兼与章锦华同志商榷

指出了环境污染纠纷调处与环境行政处罚的性质，程序，结果等均不相同，在理论上不能将两者混一谈，实践中应区别对待。     

基于耦合模型的安徽经济与环境协调发展分析

构建了经济发展与生态环境评价指标体系，选用耦合协调度模型计算2010—2019年安徽省不同区域经济发展与生态环境的耦合协调度，并采用灰色关联度法计算评价指标与耦合协调度的关联系数。研究结果表明：全省经济发展与生态环境的耦合协调度整体呈改善趋势，耦合协调度集中分布在0.393~0.765，基本处于良好协调或低水平协调阶段。全省不同区域的生态环境指数均大于经济发展指数。省会城市、沿江江南地区耦合协调度高于江淮之间和淮河以北地区。工业"三废"排放量、环境质量、环境污染治理力度是影响经济发展与生态环境耦合协调度的重要因素，建议通过改善这些方面进一步提升经济与环境的耦合协调度水平。     

“十四五”农村环境质量监测体系研究

介绍了国内外农村环境质量监测的发展历程和现状,总结了现行农村环境质量监测体系在体制机制、技术体系、应用支撑和数据共享等方面存在的主要问题,分析了"十四五"期间农村环境质量监测面临的挑战和机遇,指出"十四五"是农村生态环境保护的关键期、攻坚期和窗口期。根据环境管理对农业农村工作的新要求,构建了包括村庄、区域和流域3个层次及涵盖空气、地表水、饮用水、土壤、生态、污染点源和面源等监测内容的"十四五"农村环境质量监测体系,并提出了相应的保障措施,以期为我国农村生态环境保护提供更有力的技术支撑。     

我国海洋环境污染监测质量保证的回顾与展望

我国海洋环境污染监测质量保证的发展历史可大致分为三个阶段：孕育阶段（１９７２～１９７７年）起步阶段（１９７８～１９８３年）和发展阶段（１９８４～）。各个阶段有不同的特色和侧重点，１９７８年前主要探索与污染物质的分析方法，１９８４年后是监测质量保证工作进入管理时期。     

基于网格空间数据的晋陕蒙接壤区生态环境综合评价

晋陕蒙接壤区是典型的生态过渡带、生态脆弱带。文章在调查研究的基础上 ,选取了 1 3个评价指标 ,应用层次分析法确定其权重 ,并将各个因子分级标准化和定量赋值 ,再用加权求和法得到每个评价单元的环境质量综合评价指数。根据环境综合评价指数将环境质量分为较好 (≥ 8)、一般 (≥ 6～ <8)、较差 (≥ 4～ <6)、恶劣 (<4) 4级。结果表明 :晋陕蒙接壤区的环境质量大多处于较差等级 ,较好、一般、较差、恶劣等级的面积比例分别为 2 .2 % ,2 8% ,5 7.4%和1 2 .4%     

农业生态与土壤环境中铁元素的关系

论述了铁元素的地球化学特征及其分布 ,与铁元素有关的主要作物分类、作物与铁元素的关系以及影响铁元素有效态的因素 ,铁肥的种类和施用方法与效果     

DOAS大气环境质量监测系统与传统点式采样监测法可比性研究

系统比较了DOAS大气监测系统与传统点式采样设备在测定环境空气中二氧化硫的性能。     

Application of CFD Methods for Modelling in Air Pollution Problems: Possibilities and Gaps

Different urban air pollution problems deal with complex structure of air flows and turbulence. For such problems the Computer Fluid Dynamics (CFD) methods become widely used. However, this approach despite a number of advantages has some problems. Experience of use of CFD tools for development of models and suggestions of their applications for a local scale air pollution over a complex terrain and stable stratification are discussed in this paper, including: Topography and complex geometry: choose of the co-ordinate system and computer grid; Turbulence closure for air pollution modelling: modified k- model for stable stratified ABL; Boundary conditions for vertical profiles of velocity for stable-stratified atmosphere; Effects of the radiation and thermal budget of inclined surfaces to dispersion of pollutants; Artificial sources of air dynamics and circulation.Some examples of CFD applications for air pollution modelling for a flat terrain, mountainous area, mining open cast and indoor ventilation are discussed. Modified k- model for stably-stratified ABL is suggested. Due to the isotropic character of the k- model a combination of it in vertical with the sub-grid turbulence closure in horizontal can be more suitable for ABL. An effective scheme of boundary conditions for velocity profiles, based on the developed similarity theory for stable-stratified ABL, is suggested. Alongside with the common studies of atmospheric dispersion, the CFD methods have also demonstrated a good potential for studying anthropogenic and artificial-ventilation sources of air dynamic and circulation in local-scale processes of air pollution.